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US Open 2026 Draw Analysis: Comebacks, Land Mines and First-Round Matches to Watch

The US Open singles draws are set, and the final Grand Slam of 2026 arrives with unusually open questions on both sides.

Jannik Sinner's absence has reshaped the men's tournament, elevating Alexander Zverev to the No. 1 seed while Carlos Alcaraz returns after nearly five months away from competition. The women's draw is deeper and considerably less orderly: Aryna Sabalenka sits at the top, Elena Rybakina anchors the bottom, and several former champions and surging contenders are scattered through potentially difficult sections.

Here are the parts of the draw that stand out before main-draw play begins Sunday.

Men's Draw: Alcaraz Returns to a Loaded Bottom Half

Carlos Alcaraz's comeback won't give him much time to ease back into Grand Slam competition.

The defending champion opens against Roman Safiullin and could face Jaime Faria or Jenson Brooksby in the second round. Faria arrives in New York after a summer that included a notable upset of Ben Shelton in Cincinnati, making him an intriguing potential early test for a player who hasn't competed since April.

Things get considerably more interesting farther down the road. Tommy Paul [20] and Alexander Bublik [15] occupy Alcaraz's section, while Ben Shelton [8] is his projected quarterfinal opponent.

Shelton has his own problems to solve before anyone starts circling that matchup. He opens against Tallon Griekspoor, with Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov and Cameron Norrie [29] nearby. Arthur Fils [10], Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jiri Lehecka [18] are also in the quarter.

If the seeds hold, Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic could meet in the semifinals.

Djokovic, chasing a record 25th Grand Slam singles title, begins against Mariano Navone. His section includes Brandon Nakashima [16], Andrey Rublev [23] and Matteo Berrettini, while Daniil Medvedev [7] is the projected quarterfinal opponent.

At the top of the draw, Zverev begins his pursuit of a second major title against Lorenzo Sonego. Alex de Minaur [6] is his projected quarterfinal opponent, with Lorenzo Musetti [13], Rafael Jodar [12] and Casper Ruud [19] among the other seeds in that quarter.

Felix Auger-Aliassime [3] anchors the second quarter, which also includes Taylor Fritz [9], Learner Tien [14], Jakub Mensik [17] and Flavio Cobolli [5].

For the Americans, that creates several intriguing possibilities. Fritz and Tien could meet in the fourth round, while Shelton and Nakashima—finalists in Montreal earlier this month—begin on opposite sides of the bottom half.

Men's First-Round Matches That Jump Off the Page

Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka is pure Grand Slam nostalgia. Wawrinka enters on a wild card, and while neither man is among the leading title favorites, seeing two former Top 10 players and major finalists collide immediately makes this one difficult to ignore.

Ben Shelton vs. Tallon Griekspoor is a potentially uncomfortable opener for the No. 8 seed, while Rafael Jodar vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis gives one of the season's breakthrough young players an experienced and dangerous opponent.

And then there's Alcaraz-Safiullin. Under ordinary circumstances it might not leap off the draw sheet. After a nearly five-month absence, however, every Alcaraz match becomes an examination of where his game—and particularly his wrist—stands.

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